Looking for a 20 percent Correction

   The correction I keep expecting to arrive reflects the many negative macro factors that are here, even though the rising market takes our eyes off of them.

  We are still looking at an anemic employment situation and GDP growth. The economy is not really in a recovery, but is more in a stability mode.

  A recovery instills confidence, but confidence continues to be low. What little confidence there is, is very fragile.

  We still have concerns in Europe, China and fiscal concerns here, plus the shenanigans in Washington, and add to that a declining revenue growth in the U.S.

  The combination of world events far and near, are enough to cause trading markets to fall, which would be a somewhat healthy correction.

  I know that Goldman Sachs lifted its S&P 500 target for this year to 1,750, and for 2014 is looking for the S&P 500 to go up another nine percent to 1,900. Goldman Sachs then expects the S&P 500 in 2015 to rise another 10 percent to 2,100.

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  What are the odds…very unlikely, and be advised that even if Goldman Sachs were to be correct, there will be pull backs along the way.

  Bruce Cortez @ …Bruce@YouControlinvesting.com

Will the Market Rally Continue?

 As the Market rises, some will be getting in to follow the trend. While following the trend is important, investors need to keep a watchful eye on what’s happening.

  As more investors get into the market because times are getting better, is typically the time to be getting out of the market.

  What we have to understand as investors, is that there’s really no reason for stocks to be up as much as they are this year. (Except that the Fed has created an environment in which stocks are the best opportunity, and an economic indicator housing, is improving).

  You got to look and find out why? Where’s the growth in the economy, earnings are starting to condense with expectations being lowered.

  Be very very cautious, but do not pullout of stocks. Today we have a risk on risk on off environment, with a very high chance we can see a little bit of pullback later on.

 

  The catalyst to pull down the market is going to be about news. Remember back in 2008, one of the problems we had was debt in the U.S. and debt in Europe. The debt in both has only gotten worse, not better.

  Were not out of the woods to the debt problem and where this country and especially the developed countries are going. This is a major problem, which we cannot forget.

  Bruce Cortez

http://www.Twitter.com/StockMktTeacher

A Correction is Over-Due

A Correction is Over-Due

  The S&P 500 has risen to an important resistance level, as it touches nearly a 5-1/2 year high, and is less than 2% from a record close.

  I have pulled my money out of the market  and have been waiting for a pullback to offer a reentry level at cheaper prices.

  Pulling out of the market as it’s on the way up (Selling Strength) allows me to lock in profits, and then buy more as the market is falling (buying weakness).

  People tend to do the opposite, Buy on the way up, at higher prices because all looks good, then sell on the way down, due to fear or panic, losing money.

  For the health of the market, we need to have that pull-back that we haven’t seen. As the market appears less of a risk to investors coming in now (raising equities), this fights the inevitable pull-back that we need.

  If we watch the market performance recently, it’s been moving up a bit, then pulls back a bit, but on average the trend has been a very painful and slow climb.

  This climb is why I have been suggesting that investors not get in now, and for those that have been in, they should put their money on the sidelines.

  Professional investors have been buying protection against the inevitable pull-back.

  Remember, the market has already provided a 7.5% return in the last two months, so lets not get greedy and lose that gain. Lock in your profits, and put your money on the side to lock in those profits.

  When you see the market pull-back, get back in on the way down.

  Bruce Cortez

05-Mar-2013